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Chiến tranh xù nợ ?
by 8DonCo Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:13 pm
US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions
Leaked memo forecasting Taiwan strait conflict in 2025 triggers debate about ‘undisciplined’ comments
A leaked memo from a US four-star general saying his “gut” told him the US would be at war with China in 2025 has prompted warnings about the danger of “undisciplined” predictions of a Taiwan strait conflict.
The memo, by the head of the US Air Mobility Command (AMC), Gen Mike Minihan, was the latest prediction of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, which have ranged from 2022 to 2049. It has triggered a debate about US readiness, accusations of warmongering, and concerns about desensitising people to the real risk of invasion.
China’s government claims Taiwan as a province and its authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, is set on what he terms ”reunification”, by force if necessary. It is a prospect Taiwan’s government and people vehemently reject. Around this impasse, tensions are escalating. Beijing’s military is growing bigger and is increasing its coercive targeting and harassment of Taiwan.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan wrote. “Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Minihan’s jingoistic nine-point plan set out his “preparation for the next fight”. Dated 1 February but leaked on social media days before, it ordered increased training and integration of the AMC and joint forces, to “deter, and if required, defeat China”.
Timelines within the decade are usually about China’s capability. The director general of Taiwan’s national security bureau and its defence minister have said China would reach full invasion capability by, respectively, 2023 and 2025. Later dates are often based on China’s intention, picking years with symbolic significance for the Chinese Communist party (CCP).
But it is not always clear. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said last year that China was determined to annex Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” but did not give a date.
Minihan’s prediction was quickly linked to statements in 2021 by the then head of the US Indo-Pacific command, Adm Philip Davidson, to a Senate committee hearing. In what is now referred to as “the Davidson window”, the admiral said he believed the Chinese threat to Taiwan would “manifest” in the next six years, by 2027.
This week Davidson repeated his comments, saying his “conflict scenario” included smaller assaults on outlying islands. Davidson, who is in Taiwan meeting the president and other defence figures, declined an interview request.
Minihan’s memo was written off by many analysts as offering no evidence beyond his “gut” and crude assessments that 2024 elections in the US and Taiwan were good timing for an invasion.
“The most charitable interpretation of Minihan’s comments was that he was aiming them at his own organisation to spark change,” said Blake Herzinger, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute thinktank. “The part that doesn’t make sense is releasing a memo with this sort of inflammatory language, unclassified, basically guaranteeing it would leak.
Leaked memo forecasting Taiwan strait conflict in 2025 triggers debate about ‘undisciplined’ comments
A leaked memo from a US four-star general saying his “gut” told him the US would be at war with China in 2025 has prompted warnings about the danger of “undisciplined” predictions of a Taiwan strait conflict.
The memo, by the head of the US Air Mobility Command (AMC), Gen Mike Minihan, was the latest prediction of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, which have ranged from 2022 to 2049. It has triggered a debate about US readiness, accusations of warmongering, and concerns about desensitising people to the real risk of invasion.
China’s government claims Taiwan as a province and its authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, is set on what he terms ”reunification”, by force if necessary. It is a prospect Taiwan’s government and people vehemently reject. Around this impasse, tensions are escalating. Beijing’s military is growing bigger and is increasing its coercive targeting and harassment of Taiwan.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan wrote. “Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Minihan’s jingoistic nine-point plan set out his “preparation for the next fight”. Dated 1 February but leaked on social media days before, it ordered increased training and integration of the AMC and joint forces, to “deter, and if required, defeat China”.
Timelines within the decade are usually about China’s capability. The director general of Taiwan’s national security bureau and its defence minister have said China would reach full invasion capability by, respectively, 2023 and 2025. Later dates are often based on China’s intention, picking years with symbolic significance for the Chinese Communist party (CCP).
But it is not always clear. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said last year that China was determined to annex Taiwan “on a much faster timeline” but did not give a date.
Minihan’s prediction was quickly linked to statements in 2021 by the then head of the US Indo-Pacific command, Adm Philip Davidson, to a Senate committee hearing. In what is now referred to as “the Davidson window”, the admiral said he believed the Chinese threat to Taiwan would “manifest” in the next six years, by 2027.
This week Davidson repeated his comments, saying his “conflict scenario” included smaller assaults on outlying islands. Davidson, who is in Taiwan meeting the president and other defence figures, declined an interview request.
Minihan’s memo was written off by many analysts as offering no evidence beyond his “gut” and crude assessments that 2024 elections in the US and Taiwan were good timing for an invasion.
“The most charitable interpretation of Minihan’s comments was that he was aiming them at his own organisation to spark change,” said Blake Herzinger, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute thinktank. “The part that doesn’t make sense is releasing a memo with this sort of inflammatory language, unclassified, basically guaranteeing it would leak.
_________________
8DonCo
Re: Chiến tranh xù nợ ?
by 8DonCo Sun Feb 05, 2023 6:14 pm
Tình hình có thể sớm hơn như ông Đại Tướng dự đoán
_________________
8DonCo
Re: Chiến tranh xù nợ ?
by hoàng tử lưng gù Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:34 pm
8DonCo wrote:Tình hình có thể sớm hơn như ông Đại Tướng dự đoán
Yes, with in a few years là không tránh khỏi. Theo nguyên tắc, bên thua cuộc phải đền bù chi phí chiến tranh. Nợ chỉ là 1 số nhỏ trong các tính toán của họ.
hoàng tử lưng gù
Re: Chiến tranh xù nợ ?
by hoàng tử lưng gù Sun Feb 05, 2023 7:49 pm
Hồi thế chiến thứ 2 giữa Mỹ và Nhật, người Asian bị lùa vào trại tập trung. Không biết kỳ này, người Asian sẽ ra sao?
hoàng tử lưng gù
8DonCo
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